Trust is important, especially in such a close contest, said Jack Jedwab, president of the Association for Canadian Studies
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By Ainsley Krienselokker
Published Apr 15, 2025
2 minute read
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Public trust in the Liberals and Conservatives is nearly equal, according to a new survey. However, demographic and regional splits could shape the final outcome of the 2025 election.
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Canadians trust Liberals and Conservatives at similar rates, but there are key differences, poll finds Back to video
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The poll, conducted by Leger for the Association for Canadian Studies, found that 35 per cent of Canadians trust the Liberals and 34 per cent trust the Conservatives. The NDP has the trust of 29 per cent of people, followed by 22 per cent for the Bloc Québécois.
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Trust is important, especially in such a close contest, said Jack Jedwab, president of the Association for Canadian Studies and the Metropolis Institute.
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“Trust in the parties and their leaders is a key determinant in voter decision-making,” Jedwab said. “It’s a critical issue that could make the difference to the outcome of the election.”
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The survey reveals a distinct gender divide. While men trust the Liberals and Conservatives at similar levels (37 per cent and 34 per cent, respectively), more women trust the Liberals than the Conservatives. The Conservative party is trusted by 38 per cent of men and just 27 per cent of women.
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Jedwab links this to a broader trend across North America.
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“Some women associate advances in gender equality with the Liberal brand more so than they do the Conservative one,” he said.
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Canadians aged 55 and over (36 per cent for the Liberals compared to 30 per cent for the Conservatives) and university-educated voters (45 per cent compared to 31 per cent) also tend to trust the Liberals more.
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Risk aversion and a desire for stability may explain some of the support from older Canadians, Jedwab said, while higher education levels often align with left-leaning views, creating distrust of the Conservatives among that group.
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Trust varies significantly by language and region. Among English-speaking Canadians, trust in the two major parties is the same (35 per cent), but among Francophones, the Bloc Québécois is the most trusted (42 per cent) compared to 37 per cent for the Liberals and just 22 per cent for the Conservatives. Jedwab noted that the Bloc’s brand is closely tied to protecting Quebec’s interests.
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“The Bloc’s key message is that they’re the most trustworthy in defence of Quebec,” he said. “But they can’t govern — and that’s a challenge when voters are also thinking about who can stand up to threats from south of the border.”
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For both parties, Ontario remains the critical battleground in the trust wars. “Ontario voters are the key battleground for the parties in building their trust or eroding that of others,” said Jedwab.
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The relationship between trust and voter intention is particularly stark among NDP and Bloc voters. NDP supporters express much greater trust in Liberals than in the Conservatives, while Bloc voters also tend to trust Liberals more than Conservatives. Jedwab said this puts added pressure on the Conservatives to either build trust or erode it in their rivals.
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“These are the kinds of signals that parties are watching closely, especially with leaders’ debates coming up,” Jedwab said.
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The online survey of 1,631 Canadians was conducted by Leger on April 5 and 6. A margin of error cannot be associated with a non-probability sample in a panel survey for comparison purposes. A probability sample of 1,631 respondents would have a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 per cent, 19 times out of 20.
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